Predictive Analysis in Business Central: How to See Around Corners

You’ve probably felt it: the gap between what the spreadsheet says and what actually happens. A customer pays late and knocks your cash plan sideways. A popular SKU goes out of stock the week a promo lands. A seasonal line lingers on the shelf, quietly eating working capital. If you’ve ever thought, “I should have seen that coming,” predictive analysis in Dynamics 365 Business Central is built for you.

This isn’t a moonshot data project. It’s practical, embedded capability that learns from your own history and nudges you before risk becomes cost. In the next few minutes, you’ll see how Business Central predicts late payments, anticipates demand, strengthens cash forecasts, and—if you want—lets you tailor your own models for scenarios like churn or
shipment delays. We’ll keep it simple, keep it useful, and focus on what helps you act.

Why predictive analysis matters now

Finance and operations teams don’t need more dashboards—they need earlier signals. That’s the promise of predictive analysis: less firefighting, more foresight. When your system quietly tells you, “These invoices will probably slip,” or “That item will likely stock out mid-month,” you gain the one thing that keeps everything else steady: time to respond. If you’ve ever wished your month-end surprises would show up at mid-month instead—this is how you make that happen. And because these capabilities live inside Business Central, you don’t have to export, wrangle, or stitch things together. The predictions appear where the work already happens.

What’s included out of the box

Business Central includes three core predictive capabilities you can use immediately:
• Late Payment Prediction – Flags posted invoices that are likely to be paid late and shows a confidence level (High, Medium, Low) so you can decide how strongly to act.
• Sales & Inventory Forecast – Uses your historic sales to project near-term demand and highlight items at risk of stockout, with replenishment suggestions right where you need them.
• Cash Flow Forecasting (AI-assisted) – Pulls together payables, receivables, recurring expenses, and expected timings to give you a living, breathing view of liquidity—not a static spreadsheet snapshot.

These ship as Microsoft-provided capabilities in Business Central online. In most tenants they’re available as first-party extensions (often already present); if you don’t see them, just enable or install them from Extension Management. No separate purchase no lengthy integration. Just switch on, sense, and adjust. If you have a unique scenario—like predicting which quotes will convert or which customers might churn—you can go further with the Prediction API. It’s a developer capability that powers Late Payment Prediction and can also support custom models for classification or regression scenarios. You won’t see a “Prediction API” page in the UI; it’s something your partner or developer can use to extend Business Central when you need
something special.

Late Payment Prediction: fewer surprises in receivables

Cash flow is less about averages and more about timing. Late Payment Prediction looks at your posted sales documents and estimates whether a specific invoice will arrive on time. It also tells you how confident it is in that estimate. You’ll notice two things the first time you use it:
1. It’s right where you work. You don’t have to hunt for the signal; it shows up on the invoice page and in your role center.
2. It’s actionable. Seeing “Predicted Late (High)” naturally leads to next steps: earlier reminders, partial-upfront terms, a phone call before the due date, or an early-pay discount if that fits your playbook.

The confidence rating matters. A High prediction isn’t just a red flag; it’s permission to act decisively. Medium might nudge a friendly check-in. Low might simply put the invoice on your “watch” list. Over time, you’ll find a rhythm: which signals warrant a process change,  and which are simply useful context.

Think about it: If you knew today the five invoices most likely to slip, which conversations would you move up by a week?

Sales & Inventory Forecast: protect service levels without bloating stock

Inventory decisions compound. Order too late and you pay in rush fees, lost sales, and strained relationships. Order too early and you lock working capital into the wrong places.
The Sales & Inventory Forecast balances that tension by projecting demand for each item using your own history. What you’ll appreciate in practice is the subtlety. You’re raising a purchase order for a supplier you use every week. The forecast quietly suggests adding a related item because it’s likely to run short in the next period. You weren’t planning to buy it yet, but the signal is strong, and combining lines now avoids a last-minute order later. No drama—just fewer fire drills.
This is where operations leaders fall in love with predictive analysis: it keeps the team calm. Instead of “We’re out tomorrow,” you get “We’re trending toward a shortfall in two weeks.” That space—the difference between urgent and important—is where better
margins are made.

AI-assisted Cash Flow Forecasting: a living view of liquidity

Most cash forecasts break down at the same point: when timing changes. A customer pays a week late, a large expense hits earlier than expected, or a planned purchase moves up to catch a discount. Static spreadsheets struggle with that. Business Central’s AI-assisted cash flow forecast pulls in the usual suspects—open AR and AP, expected dates, recurring costs, planned purchases—and updates as reality shifts.

It won’t replace finance judgment (and it shouldn’t), but it frames the conversation:
• Will we dip below our cash buffer in the next 45–60 days?
• If we prepay for a vendor discount, does the cash position still hold?
• Which combination of collections, terms, and inventory tweaks keeps us in the green and keeps sales humming?

That’s a very different meeting than debating cell formulas in a spreadsheet. It’s faster, clearer, and centered on decisions, not reconciliation.

Analysis mode (and natural-language assist): make the numbers talk

Predictions are the starting point. The next step is interrogation—slicing and grouping the underlying data to answer “why?” Business Central’s analysis mode lets you do that directly on list pages: pivot, summarize, filter, group. No exports, no detours.

With analysis assist, you can even describe what you want in plain language—“show average cost by item category and last 90 days’ sales,” or “rank customers by overdue amount, highest first”—and get a ready-made layout to refine. The result is less clicking
and more understanding. When a forecast flags risk, you can explain it quickly, and more
importantly, act on it.

Data quality: the quiet multiplier

There’s no polite way to say it: messy data makes shaky predictions. The good news is you don’t need a six-month cleanup. A short tune-up goes a long way:
• Align customer and vendor master data (consistent terms, methods, and contact details).
• Standardize item attributes for anything you plan to forecast (variants, units of measure, categories).
• Ensure your posting dates and document statuses reflect reality (no long-open drafts, no stray backdates).
• Make sure you have enough history for the pattern you care about (thin or wildly erratic history limits what any model can learn).

Think of it like sharpening a blade. A few careful passes, and everything cuts cleaner.

 

How to start without creating a project you’ll dread

Skip the grand rollout. Start small and local:
• Turn on Late Payment Prediction and watch what it says about your next 30 open invoices.
• Pick five items you actually worry about (a fast mover, a seasonal product, a long-lead component, and two everyday staples). Compare the forecast’s suggestions to your current plan.
• Glance at the AI cash view once a week. Where does it differ from your spreadsheet, and what explains the gap?

After a few weeks, you’ll know where the predictions consistently help. Turn those insights into simple playbooks (“High late-risk? Earlier reminder and partial upfront.” “Forecasted stockout? Advance the PO by one delivery window.”). The secret isn’t fancy rules—it’s consistent, lightweight actions triggered by clear signals.

A quick story from the field

A mid-market distributor faced the same two headaches every quarter: a cash squeeze in week ten and last-minute freight to rescue stockouts. They didn’t overhaul anything dramatic. They simply switched on Late Payment Prediction for their top accounts and agreed that a high-confidence late signal triggers a friendly call and a slight terms shift. At the same time, they watched ten SKUs with the forecast—two seasonal, four steady, four with long lead times—and nudged purchase timing by a week here, two weeks there.
That was it. No fanfare. By the next quarter, collections started earlier for the right customers, rush fees dropped, and the cash line looked… boring. The CEO joked that “boring” was their new favorite KPI. Predictive analysis didn’t replace judgment—it made sure judgment arrived before the fire did.

Ready when you are

If you take nothing else from this, take this: predictive analysis in Business Central is about seeing around corners just far enough to act with confidence. It won’t run your business for you. But it will give you the kind of advance notice that turns “we should’ve known” into “glad we handled that last week.”

Curious to see it on your data and your processes? Let’s make it real.

Email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. and tell us your top two pain points—collections, stock, cash (or something else). We’ll walk you through a focused, no-drama setup and help you decide what to keep, what to tweak, and where a custom prediction might be worth it.

Because the best time to stop fighting fires is before they start.